Private Assets: Top 10 themes in 2026

1. Moderating rates and a resilient but uneven macroeconomic cycle create fertile ground for private markets, yet require more selectivity. 

2. Demand for private assets is intact despite the noise: investors still want privates for diversification and outcomes.

3. Privates are in transition along the classic innovation curve (as hedge funds, mutual funds and investment trusts were before them). The consolidation of recent years is giving way to a structural reset that will seed the next wave of alpha.

4. Innovation is accelerating: products and processes are changing fast. They are the new plumbing that will define winners. In particular, liquidity engineering – through secondaries, evergreens, and other wrappers – is re-pricing illiquidity, shifting negotiating power, and changing how returns are split.

5. Private equity’s recovery is real but gradual. There are areas of concern that deserve attention, but headline worries appear overstated in the near-term. The playbook is changing: execution, liquidity design, and deep sector expertise will drive returns more than multiple expansion. Private equity might be losing some mystique but is becoming more industrial.

6. Private debt is maturing: as it grows its client base and deepens its ties to banks, it must upgrade valuation and liquidity management. Liquidity remains benign and most exposure sits in senior, secured, floating-rate direct lending – the backbone for yield and liability matching. In the US, AI, renewables, and reshoring push specialists into higher yield niches (ABS, specialty finance). In Europe, mid-market lending and SME refinancing (for consolidation or founder succession) drive growth. Across regions, selectivity, underwriting skill and alignment will beat scale bought at the expense of discipline.

7. Infrastructure sits at the intersection of the main themes and stands to benefit. Institutional-grade capacity is scarce: origination and execution edge matter. Managers’ ability to balance top tier, tightly-priced projects with cheaper, value-creation opportunities will separate the wheat from the chaff.

8. Most of the repricing in real estate is likely behind us. A selective stabilisation is unfolding across sectors and locations, prompting cautious re-allocation into logistics, data centres and quality residential. Micro factors matter far more than macro.

9. Key risks for privates in 2026 are rising real yields, regulatory/tax uncertainty and competition for top-tier deals – amplified by AI volatility and geopolitics. As private markets scale and deepen links with banks, reinsurers and non-banks, shocks could also become more systemic.

10. Allocation stance: private debt and infrastructure remain our top convictions. Selective, opportunistic alpha is re-emerging in private equity and real estate as the recovery proceeds.